ScSEED — Saguache County Sustainable Environment & Economic Development

Conditions Dashboard

Issue 1 · Q2 2026
Example data — for illustration only
Pillar 1 · Water — the aquifer, snowpack, and well retirements
The 2031 aquifer recovery deadline is Saguache County's most consequential near-term risk.
Last updated: June 2026
Unconfined aquifer vs. 1976 baseline
−1.2M AF
▼ Still declining
Snowpack % of normal (Apr 1, 2026)
41%
▼ Historic low — 2026 season
Well retirements (cumulative)
312
▲ +18 this quarter
Over-pumping fee (current $/AF)
$500
→ Mid-tier; escalates to $1,000 at deadline
Conservation easement acres
4,200
▲ +340 acres since Q4 2025
Domestic well arsenic exceedance rate
14%
→ CSPH 1,000-well study (2024)

Aquifer deficit trend (million acre-feet vs. baseline)

Aquifer deficit worsening each year from 2019 to 2026.

Well retirements — cumulative count

Well retirements growing from 140 in 2019 to 312 in 2026.
Metric Current value Source Cadence Direction
Subdistrict No. 1 annual deficit vs. court target −28,400 AF RGWCD annual filing Annual Off target
Rio Grande streamflow at Del Norte (% of avg) 52% USGS gauge 08220000 Daily Critically low
PARA easement pipeline (acres in negotiation) ~1,800 AC Colorado Open Lands Quarterly Active
Confined aquifer level (trend) Stable DWR Groundwater Viewer Monthly Stable

Action flags this quarter

  • 2026 snowpack at 41% of normal — update CWCB Water Plan grant narrative with current SNOTEL data before the December 1 deadline.
  • NRCS RCPP application batching: Colorado Open Lands has confirmed 2025–2026 batching dates — coordinate ScSEED data package by August.
  • Arsenic exceedance data released — incorporate CSPH 1,000-well results into recovery center and health grant narratives (Rec 6).
Sources: DWR Groundwater Data Viewer (dwr.colorado.gov) · NRCS SNOTEL (wcc.nrcs.usda.gov) · RGWCD annual reports · Colorado Open Lands · CSPH 1,000-Well Study Example figures for illustration. Replace with current DWR and SNOTEL pulls before use.
Pillar 2 · Economic & Demographic
Income, employment, housing, and visitor economy — the numbers grant reviewers use to assess need.
Last updated: June 2026
Median household income
$50,082
84% of Colorado average ($59,900)
Poverty rate (overall)
17.8%
→ 1.7× Colorado state rate (10.4%)
Unemployment rate (LAUS)
6.2%
→ Seasonal — peaks in winter
County population
12,850
▼ −1.2% over 5 years (DOLA)
Visitor foot traffic (Placer.AI)
+8%
▲ vs. prior year — Q2 2026
Housing vacancy rate
16.3%
→ See Pillar 6 · Housing for detail

Income & poverty — Saguache vs. Colorado state

Saguache median income $50,082 vs. Colorado $59,900. Poverty rate 17.8% vs. 10.4%.

Employment by sector (nonfarm jobs)

Government 34%, Agriculture/natural resources 28%, Services 22%, Retail/trade 10%, Other 6%.
MetricValueSourceDirection
Child poverty rate 30.3% SLVDRG 2024 Statistical Profile High
Average weekly wage $704 BLS QCEW (Q4 2025) 58% of state avg
Net migration (annual) −85 persons DOLA Demography Outmigration
Top visitor origin markets (Placer.AI) Denver metro, Front Range, TX Placer.AI (ScSEED license) Expanding reach

Action flags this quarter

  • ACS 1-yr estimates release (Sept 2026) — update income and poverty figures immediately for use in all fall grant applications.
  • Placer.AI visitor data — pull Q2 origin/spending report to support OEDIT Tourism Management Grant narrative (LOI due Dec).
  • Solar-readiness baseline — prepare a one-page economic conditions brief (Q2 wage and employment figures) to support a county community-benefit template for any future in-county solar project.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ACS · DOLA State Demography Office (demography.dola.colorado.gov) · BLS QCEW · Colorado CDLE LAUS · Placer.AI Example figures for illustration.
Pillar 3 · Health & Social Conditions
Medicaid, behavioral health, overdose — the baseline for recovery center and health grant applications.
Last updated: June 2026
Medicaid enrollees (% of county population)
38%
→ ~4,800 Saguache residents
Behavioral health providers per 1,000
0.4
▼ HRSA designated shortage area
Overdose deaths — SLV region (2025)
19
→ Trending flat vs. 21 in 2024
Free/reduced lunch enrollment
67%
→ Child poverty proxy (CDE)
Adults reporting poor mental health (%)
22%
→ BRFSS rolling average
SLV Health operating margin
−2.1%
▼ Medicaid cut exposure: HIGH

Overdose deaths — SLV region, 2020–2025

Overdose deaths: 2020=14, 2021=18, 2022=24, 2023=22, 2024=21, 2025=19.

Medicaid enrollment vs. state avg (%)

Saguache 38%, Alamosa 34%, Rio Grande 31%, Costilla 41%, Colorado state 25%.
MetricValueSourceStatus
Hope in the Valley — MAT patients served — Data-sharing agreement pending Pending
Fentanyl seizures — 12th Judicial District 43 cases (2025) DA annual report Elevated
Food insecurity rate 18.4% Feeding America (2025) Above state avg
Inpatient beds — SLV Health 44 SLV Health annual report Reduced capacity

Action flags this quarter

  • H.R. 1 Medicaid exposure: 4,800 enrollees at risk — update HCPF data monthly and include in any federal resilience or recovery grant narrative.
  • Hope in the Valley data-sharing: initiate formal request for quarterly MAT patient counts to support HRSA RCORP application (next cycle spring 2027).
  • Colorado Health Foundation deadline June 15, 2026 — behavioral health grant application window. Use this dashboard data as the needs assessment.
Sources: HCPF (hcpf.colorado.gov) · CDPHE Vital Statistics / Overdose Data to Action · HRSA Health Workforce · BRFSS · Colorado CDE · Feeding America Example figures for illustration.
Pillar 4 · Energy & Solar Development
Utility-scale solar is expanding across the San Luis Valley — the largest project is in neighboring Alamosa County. Saguache's opportunity is to be solar-ready for any in-county project and to pursue agrivoltaics on land leaving irrigation.
Last updated: June 2026
Regional context
Alamosa Co.
→ 600 MW solar+storage advancing (outside Saguache jurisdiction)
County solar siting framework
Not yet adopted
→ Be ready before a project is proposed
Community-benefit template
In development
→ Local hire, lease, tax standards
Agrivoltaics potential
Opportunity
▲ Pairs with land leaving irrigation (Rec 1)
CO 80%-renewables-by-2030
61%
▲ 2025 statewide — sustains demand
CDA Agrivoltaics grant
Up to 65%
→ Dual-use solar pilots (FY27)

Colorado renewable energy — progress toward 2030 goal

Colorado renewables: 61% in 2025 versus an 80% target for 2030.
MetricValueSourceStatus
Regional utility-scale solar (Alamosa Co.) 600 MW solar + 600 MW storage Alamosa News / Alamosa Citizen 2026 Regional context
In-county solar siting framework Not yet adopted Saguache County (to develop) Be ready
Agrivoltaics on land leaving irrigation Opportunity CDA Agrivoltaics program; Garnet Mesa model Develop pilots
Colorado 80%-renewables-by-2030 progress 61% (2025 statewide) CDLE Clean Energy Plan On track statewide

Action flags this quarter

  • Be solar-ready. Draft a county solar siting framework and a standard community-benefit template now, so any in-county project delivers local value rather than passing through.
  • Develop agrivoltaics pilots. Pair solar with land coming out of irrigation (Rec 1) and pursue the CDA Agrivoltaics grant for dual-use demonstrations.
  • Monitor the regional market. Track Alamosa County's utility-scale build for workforce, lease, and supply-chain spillovers Saguache residents and businesses can capture.
Sources: Alamosa News / Alamosa Citizen (regional project) · CDLE Clean Energy Plan · CO Dept. of Agriculture Agrivoltaics program · SLVREC Example figures for illustration.
Pillar 5 · Tourism — visitor economy and overnight visitation
Saguache County's tourism sector shows steady growth and strong overnight visitation, representing an important and expanding economic engine.
Last updated: June 2026
Monthly trips (last 12 months)
10.5K
▲ +3.3% YoY
Monthly visitors
9.3K
▲ +1.8% YoY
Visit nights monthly
17.1K
→ −2.2% YoY
Average trip duration
2.2 nights
▲ +2.4% YoY
Top origin market
Denver, CO
→ 50% of trips, 2.1 nights avg
Visitor spending growth
+10%
▲ YoY increase

Monthly visits — last 12 months

Monthly trips trending upward with seasonal variation.

Top 5 origin markets by trip volume

Denver dominates origin market at 50% of all trips.
Metric Current value Source Cadence Direction
Monthly trips (March 2026) 10.5K Placer.AI monthly report Monthly Growing
Month-over-month trip growth +63.7% Placer.AI Feb–Mar comparison Monthly Strong seasonal growth
Year-over-year visitor spending increase +10% Placer.AI 12-month trend Annual Expanding economic value
Denver, CO — trips and avg duration 5.3K trips, 2.1 nights Placer.AI top DMA analysis Monthly Primary market
Colorado Springs–Pueblo DMA 1.8K trips, 2.3 nights Placer.AI top DMA analysis Monthly Secondary market
Albuquerque–Santa Fe DMA 572 trips, 2.2 nights Placer.AI top DMA analysis Monthly Emerging market

Strategic opportunities this quarter

  • Expand lodging capacity. Current overnight visitation is exceptionally strong; modest increases in available accommodations could materially boost economic impact.
  • Develop trip packaging and itineraries. Structured experiences targeting key origin markets (especially Denver metro) could extend average stays and increase spend per visit.
  • Enhance evening programming and events. Evening activities and destination dining are key drivers of visitor spend; current gaps present quick-win investment opportunities.
  • Improve destination planning and wayfinding. Data-driven signage and digital tools can capture more of the pass-through market and improve visitor experience.
Sources: Placer.AI visitor insights (50+ mile market, last 12 months) · Saguache County Tourism Council Data based on Placer.AI tracking analytics; represents 50+ mile market radius in last 12 months through April 2026.
Pillar 6 · Housing — affordability, supply, and workforce capacity
Saguache County faces a supply mismatch: home prices and rents are rising faster than incomes, even as roughly one in six units sits vacant — and the new Range View workforce apartments are the first major supply addition in years.
Last updated: June 2026
Median home value
$226K
▲ ~4.5× median household income
Median gross rent (monthly)
$928
→ ~22% of median household income
Total housing units
11,361
→ 67.8% single-family detached (ACS)
Housing vacancy rate
16.3%
→ High vacancy, low inventory for workers
Severe housing shortage (SLV region)
25.2%
▼ Share of population affected
New workforce units (pipeline)
32
▲ Range View Apartments — 2026

Affordability gap — home value vs. income-supported price ($K)

Median home value $226K vs. income-supported price ~$150K — an affordability gap of about $76K.

Housing stock by tenure & occupancy (%)

Owner-occupied ~58%, renter-occupied ~26%, vacant ~16%.
Metric Current value Source Cadence Direction
Price-to-income ratio ~4.5× Zillow ÷ SLVDRG 2024 income Annual Unaffordable
Cost-burdened renters (Colorado benchmark) 51% CHFA / Bell Policy (2025) Annual High
Cost-burdened owners (Colorado benchmark) 21% CHFA / Bell Policy (2025) Annual Elevated
Range View Apartments — workforce units 32 (14×1BR · 12×2BR · 6×3BR) Saguache County Housing Authority One-time (2026) Completing 2026
County-specific cost-burden & overcrowding Data pull pending ACS Table B25106 / DP04 Annual To populate
SLV Housing Coalition needs study In use SLV Housing Coalition Periodic Available

Action flags this quarter

  • Document the Range View win. 32 new workforce units complete in 2026 — capture unit mix, occupancy, and waitlist data as a baseline for DOLA Affordable Housing and CDBG grant narratives.
  • Resolve the vacancy paradox. 16.3% vacancy alongside a workforce shortage signals seasonal/second homes or uninhabitable stock — commission a vacancy-condition survey to strengthen housing grant applications.
  • Link solar workforce to housing demand. Regional clean-energy construction (Pillar 4) can pressure local rentals — build temporary/workforce housing standards into the county's solar-readiness and community-benefit template.
  • Partner with the SLV Housing Coalition. Adopt the 25.2% severe-shortage figure into ScSEED needs assessments and align on 2026–27 funding cycles with the Saguache County Housing Authority.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ACS (DP04 / B25106) · DOLA State Demography Office · Saguache County Housing Authority · SLV Housing Coalition · CHFA / Bell Policy Center (2025) Example figures for illustration — blends ACS estimates with regional studies. Replace with current county-level ACS pulls before use.